Sunday, April 24, 2022

Not An AAU Rant - Mid-Atlantic Power Rankings 4/24/2022

 Yeah, I've become THAT father....

Some yell during games, some personally take over practices, or run at-home drills that resemble Marine Boot Camp.  

Me?  I like to crunch numbers and track tournament results, 

Our program tends to follow one of tournament organizers that do present a ranking system.  This early in the season, things are tenuous at best, but the entire 5th-8th grade rankings are ludicrous.  I've put it upon myself to review all the apps, enter the results in a spreadsheet so brittle, it's held together by scotch tape and the Holy Spirit, and generate a Power Index for 5th and 7th Grade girls.

Yep, it sounds as bad as it is.  

For the sports buff, it's essentially 80% an RPI index, and 20% bias.   


A 4-game minimum for ranking (there haven't been as many 5th grade tournaments) makes thing as tenuous as the tournament organizer rankings.  Strength of schedule and the opponent's strength of schedule are taken into consideration, so you have scenarios like PA Fusion behind Keystone Hoops, although both traded losses, and PA Fusion won the tournament championship (actual championships are not taken into consideration.  In some tournaments, they're a dime a dozen).  Keystone Hoops' opponents have played elsewhere and fare a little bit better, thus putting them slightly ahead of PA Fusion, but I can't put them as #2 with two superior teams with undefeated records.  As the season progresses, I'll feel more comfortable relying on a true RPI.

To show the index's effectiveness, the #12 team on the index came into the weekend 11-0 with three championships under their belt in the past two months.  Their power index was under .500, due to host of inferior teams whose only quality opponent was this undefeated team. This weekend, they lost a pool game to a team that's 5-6 for the season, playing far rougher opponents.  They're now 13-1 and they're Power Ranking actually went UP because of the better opponents they played.  

Disclaimer, Millie's 5th grade team is somewhere on that list.


For 7th grade,  you needed six games to crack the Top Ten, despite the 5 game minimum.  I flip-flopped #9 and #10 because I know the one program pits them against weaker teams in the program, who are spoon fed rec league opponents to bolster their record.  #10 has beaten two quality opponents, although the rest are inflated a bit.  

Another idiosyncrasy with the index and teams with 10 or fewer games, Maja's team is 1-3, but based on the superior teams they played, would hold a .505 ranking  (fair or just above average compared to other teams.)  There's a local team that's  8-0 with two championships, but the quality of opponents is so poor their Power Index rating is .480! 

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